Rising seas, disappearing beaches, and unmet resilience needs in Orange County, CA

When it comes to “resilience,” big-ticket infrastructure projects and disastrous impacts of weather shocks typically grab headlines. Rightly so. What about communities facing slow, creeping effects of unmet resiliences needs?

Local demand for federal support for resilience projects seems to outstrip supply of funds by a wide margin. For example, in fiscal year 2020, FEMA’s new Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program was oversubscribed; $3.6 billion in project applications were submitted by non-federal sponsors in competition for $500 million in available funds. These figures don’t account for communities who might want and benefit from BRIC funds, but didn’t have the capacity or knowledge about the program to submit an application.

Similar to BRIC, federal funding can flow to states and local communities through Army Corps of Engineers projects. One example of this is the century-old Galveston Seawall, whose protection has enabled the urban growth of Galveston and Houston, Texas. Typically Corps Civil Works projects are cost-shared with the federal government covering a portion of costs (in many case 65%) and non-local sponsor covering the remainder. This can be a boon for local communities in need of resilience upgrades and funds for them, however paying for their share can still be a challenge for state and local governments even when they’ve scored federal support.

One current example of unmet need is in Orange County, California. Despite having a median household income well above the national average, Orange County is still struggling in its response to beach erosion and sea level rise, both of which pose significant risks to coastal communities in the county. According to the Orange County Register, two beach replenishment projects—the Surfside-Sunset Replenishment Project and the San Clemente Shoreline Project—have not received federal appropriations and so remain in a limbo-like queue for funding. The United States Representative from this congressional district, Michelle Steele, has written about the issue to call attention to the need for funds to replenish the area’s beaches, a valuable amenity for residents and tourists.

Research has shown wider beaches can improve flood protection and increase proximate property values, however the two sets of unfunded projects are competing with other potential Corps projects and Congressional priorities. The Surfside-Sunset project seeks $15.5 million in federal funding for 1.75 million cubic yards of beach replenishment along twelve miles of shoreline from Surfside to Newport Beach. The last replenishment in this area took place twelve years ago, and some portions of this shoreline are now fewer than 100 feet wide. It’s unclear if or when these shores will benefit from federal investment. Some parts of San Clemente— a city further down the coast also seeking federal funds— have no beach left at all. This is threatening Amtrak’s iconic Pacific Surfliner route, as well as valuable properties that are within earshot of the surf.

In addition to fiscal constraints, the ability of local governments to replenish their beaches will depend in part on available sand supply, transport costs, and policy decisions. In the US, dredging costs on a per unit basis are substantially higher than in Europe, due in part to archaic restrictions from the Jones Act of 1920. Sand is not an infinite resource, and many popular locations (e.g., Miami Beach) spend a lot of money to supply and maintain their beaches.

As the impacts of climate change grow, demand for costly resilience and adaptation solutions is likely to grow in step. Beach replenishment in Orange County is just one example of unmet resilience needs. A question burning in my mind is: how much of the funding for these adaptation projects will come from the federal government vs. state and local governments or the private sector? Research indicates raising revenue for public adaptation solutions may lead to distortionary fiscal policy and reduce overall welfare, so policy design and consideration of distributional implications for these investments will be important. When it comes to beach nourishment, my guess is there is a limit to how much inland residents are willing to spend to protect coastal communities in what some have referred to as a subsidy arrangement. At the same time, paying for adaptation solutions without external support might be beyond state and local governments’ capacities. Innovative financial instruments or other creative solutions will likely be needed.

In the coming years, I hope focus and attention is not only paid to megaprojects and immediate impacts of disasters brought on by weather shocks, but also to the steady stream of unanswered calls for resilience investment in communities that are already feeling the strains and effects of climate change. Orange County is well-heeled and will probably fare better than most of the world’s other coastal communities. However, I am sure there are many examples of communities in need of resilience investment who do not have articles or blog posts written about them yet.